Sharp recession should give way to a second half snap back, J.P. Morgan’s Anastasia Amoroso predicts

If Wall Street’s first quarter feels bad, next quarter may feel worse.

J.P. Morgan Private Bank’s Anastasia Amoroso, who’s firmly in the recession camp, expects the coronavirus pandemic to slash U.S. economic growth by 14% in the second quarter which starts next Wednesday.

Yet, Amoroso suggests there’s hope.

“We would see something on the order of double digits [upside] in Q3. It would definitely make up for a lot of what we lost in Q2,” the firm’s head of cross-asset thematic strategy told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Wednesday. “We could see a snap back in activity headed into the second half.”

The coronavirus began hitting the U.S. late in the first quarter, so the brunt of the damage is likely ahead.

According to Amoroso, the most significant question for the Street is how long will the economic shutdowns last. 

“The containment measures do need to work,” she said.

She also acknowledges a lot hinges on a coronavirus aid package for Americans and businesses.

Without the package, Amoroso doubts Tuesday and Monday’s market comeback will hold.

“That does need to become a reality to make sure the lows have actually put in,” said Amoroso.

On Wednesday, the Dow saw its first back-to-back gain since February. But the major indexes closed off their highs after Sen. Bernie Sanders threatened to hold up the virus aid bill.

“It is very constructive to have back to back days of market increases, and it does seem like there’s a bit of performance chasing,” she said. “We have to make sure we don’t throw caution to the wind too early.”

However, she hasn’t priced in a worst case scenario either.

“We’re hopeful that over the next few weeks we will start to see fewer cases emerge in places like New York and elsewhere,” Amoroso said “If that base case develops, that would give us more confidence.”

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